Top 10 Beverly Hills Homes for Sale!

It’s time for a new installment of my list of the Top 10 homes currently for sale in Beverly Hills.

Since my previous No. 1 has now sold, there is a new No. 1 on this list. There’s also some re-shuffling. Frankly, this home would have been at the top of my list even if Pete Sampras’ former home hadn’t sold. My new favorite home is in Beverly Park. No surprise the best house is in the city's premier development. However, even for Beverly Park, I feel this is a standout property (much better than the one Prince is renting).

Additionally, Nos. 2 and 3 are no longer on the market (No.3 was admittedly a bit overpriced even if it was cool), No. 4 sold, No. 5 is now No. 2. No. 6 is off the market. Nos. 7 and 8 are still available. No. 9 is still available but I dropped it off the list. No. 10 sold. If you want to check out the old list, it's HERE.

But on to the NEW list:

1. 40 Beverly Park – $39 million – 10 Beds, 14 Baths – It’s a shame that this terrible economic climate has forced a price reduction on this special property. Here’s some things that set this house apart. The stonework in the bathrooms is fantastic. Each bathroom is like it’s own special treat. The woodwork is fabulous, just check the ceiling in the master bedroom. The master closet is the size of a decent-sized apartment. As a dude, I love the guy’s master bathroom. The study has a glass floor that looks down to wine cellar below. And outside the study, there’s a waterfall that goes underneath the driveway and then becomes a stream that flows around the study and into the outdoor pool. I would always work at home. The lower level not only has a great theater and bar (wine cellar, again), but it has a great indoor pool next to the workout area with this awesome sitting area and a sauna and a bunch of separate spa rooms. I could go on and on. Did I mention the beautiful French architecture?

2. 1310 Tower Grove – “La Villa Serena” – $20 million – 6 Beds, 9 Baths – OK, this was No. 5 on my previous list. Now, it’s a close second. There is this room in this house that is so amazing, I don’t think I’d ever leave it if I lived there. The ceiling is two stories tall with a hallway running across the top of it on one side. Below, there is the kitchen, a great sitting area with a television, a huge dining table (think Spanish feast) and doors that go out to the patio and infinity pool with incredible views of the city. I love this room because it basically combines most of everything you do in a house (except what you do in the bedroom) in one room. So if you actually get along with your spouse, and she happens to be willing to cook for you, this is the perfect setup.

3. 9550 Oak Pass Rd. -- $15 million – 5 Beds, 8 Baths – I love this house. New construction. It’s like a cross between an architectural and a Mediterranean with Frank Lloyd Wright influences. Needs some better landscaping, though.

4. 1013 N. Roxbury -- $17 million – 6 Beds, 7.5 Baths – Great house with an Old Hollywood feel but totally modernized. Location couldn’t be better. The price has come down nearly $5 million from the original listing.

5. 1446 Donhill Dr. -- $16.5 million – 6 Beds, 9 Baths – OK, this is a distinctive house. It’s Balinese but with a lot of modern touches. It has some downsides – so close to the street, and it’s over-priced. But still, it is really unlike any other on this list. And I think very comfortable. It’s relaxing – and beautiful.

6. 702 N. Elm Dr. -- $14 million – 6 Beds, 11 Baths -- This 2-year old home in the BH flats has one great room after another – whether it’s the kitchen or the study or the theater – there are details upon details. The woodwork, floors and stonework. And, in my opinion, it’s nice to be closer to the city.

7. 14 Beverly Park -- $23 million – 7 Beds, 7 Baths – This is a great house but needs some updating. I might have put it higher if the interior was not outdated. Compare it with No. 8, which doesn’t need updating and is less expensive. Problem is, I just like this one better.

8. 65 Beverly Park -- $21.5 million – 6 Beds, 10 Baths – This one has come down $2 million from the previous list when I had it at No. 7.

9. 0 Trousdale -- $10 million -- 4 Beds, 5 Baths -- This is a beautiful (if a bit harsh in places) modern home with spectacular views. It's got some really gorgeous finishes and very creative architectural touches (especially the distinctive entrance), but it is also very close to the street.

10. 27 Beverly Park -- $29 million – 10 Beds, 15 Baths – This one needs another price reduction already. It’s a great house. Tremendous rooms. Lots of land. But it needs to come down to reality.

11. 1032 Cove Way -- $10 million – 5 Beds, 6 Baths. Finally, I decided to add a fixer to the list this time. This English Tudor has all the makings of a premium property: great location behind the BH hotel, great architecture and history, great amenities like a tennis court and pool. It just needs to be brought into the future. (Note: I like the home at 1119 Calle Vista even better, but the price is too high.)

Finally, as always, there are some pretty decent Beverly Hills homes that are not on the market and could be purchased regardless. But this list is just for the ones being actively marketed.

New Los Feliz listing

Here's some information about my new Los Feliz listing:

2131 CEDARHURST DR., LOS ANGELES, CA 90027

A cosmetic upgrade will make this English Tudor a premium Los Feliz estate. Reduced $300k from previous listing, this historic home was built by a foundry owner with exquisite details. It's within 2 blocks of Hillhurst shops yet is perched behind gates on a secluded hill offering gorgeous downtown views from nearly every room as well as the pool, patio and balcony. Includes maid's quarters and a guest area with kitchenette and separate entrance for possible rental. Beautiful woodwork and iron work.

5 BEDROOMS, 5.5 BATHROOMS, 4,928 SQ. FT.

$2.499 MILLION

Best and Worst Foreclosure Areas in "Prime" Los Angeles

Today, I'm taking an in-depth look at the best and worst foreclosure areas within "prime Los Angeles."

I've written at length about how little foreclosures are affecting some of the prime areas of Los Angeles. And I've written about the worst foreclosure areas in Los Angeles County.

But today I'm going to show you some of the numbers I look at regularly. I generally work with buyers and sellers from Downtown Los Angeles to the ocean and in the eastern portion of San Fernando Valley. These are the areas I'm calling "prime Los Angeles."

To come up with the best and worst areas, I calculated the percentage of new foreclosure auctions relative to the number of homes and condos currently on the market. My foreclosure numbers are based on the NEW Foreclosure Auctions for the month of August, as reported by Property Shark.

Within my focus area, below are the 14 areas LEAST affected by foreclosures. For each zip code the number of new foreclosures in August would represent 2% or less of the total housing inventory:

LEAST AFFECTED "PRIME" LOS ANGELES FORECLOSURE AREAS

1. 90401 - Santa Monica - New Auctions = 0% of Housing Inventory
2. 90402 - Santa Monica (N. of Montana) - 0%
3. 90212 - Beverly Hills (SW) 0%
4. 90272 - Pacific Palisades - 1%
5. 90077 - Bel Air/Holmby Hills - 1%
6. 90064 - Cheviot Hills/Rancho Park - 1%
7. 90048 - Beverly Center/Grove/W. Hollywood - 1%
8. 90265 - Malibu - 1%
9. 90403 - Santa Monica (Wilshire to Montana) - 2%
10. 90024 - Westwood - 2%
11. 90049 - Brentwood - 2%
12. 90210 - Beverly Hills - 2%
13. 90027 - Los Feliz - 2%
14. 90211 - Beverly Hills -2%

Two caveats: One, some of these areas, while seeing few foreclosures, are experiencing downward price pressure from a bloated housing inventory, most notably on this list: Malibu. Second, this is just one month's foreclosure numbers. I'm going to look at this list again in coming days with other foreclosure numbers.

Now, below are the nine areas MOST affected by foreclosures. Each area's foreclosure auctions in August would represent 7% or more of the current inventory:

MOST AFFECTED "PRIME" LOS ANGELES FORECLOSURE AREAS

1. 90026 - Echo Park - 29%
2. 90039 - Silver Lake - 18%
3. 90038 - Hollywood - 13%
4. 90029 - Hollywood - 11%
5. 91607 - Valley Village - 10%
6. 91316 - Encino - 7%
7. 90004 - Hancock Park - 7%
8. 91403 - Sherman Oaks - 7%
9. 90036 - Miracle Mile - 7%

OK, so this generally means these areas saw a significant spike in foreclosures in August relative to the number of homes already on the market. Again, this only tells part of the story. Some of these areas -- most notably Hollywood and Hancock Park -- have a relatively low housing inventory right now compared with other areas.

To see the entire chart of foreclosure auctions relative to inventory: CLICK HERE.

Housing Inventory in Los Angeles by Zip Code

There's been a lot of talk lately -- by agents, buyers, sellers, agents and even pundits on CNBC -- about when the housing market will hit bottom. And everyone wants to know how to tell when we've hit bottom.

One of the most-discussed indicators is the excess housing inventory. Housing inventory has swollen as buyers have retreated and bank-owned properties have flooded the market. The thinking is that a recovery can't begin until the inventory of unsold homes is whittled down to a reasonable level.

Indeed, some areas of Los Angeles are flooded with unsold homes -- either homeowners that can't sell or bank-owned properties that were foreclosed upon. There's even a growing discussion out there of the "shadow inventory" -- these are bank-owned homes that banks aren't putting back on the market, as well as homes that homeowners want to sell but are waiting to sell until the market recovers.

But like everything in real estate, the inventory story varies widely from neighborhood to neighborhood.

There are very logical reasons for this.

First, some areas of Los Angeles have seen very few foreclosures. Second, some areas still have a lot of pent-up demand and good things sell quickly. Third, some areas have seen prices hit bottom, while other areas likely still have some areas to fall.

And as the housing market continues taking stronger steps toward an eventual recovery -- declining subprime foreclosures, bailout of Fannie and Freddie, buyers returning to the market, interest rates falling -- it's probably a good time to take a look at inventories in Los Angeles at the Zip Code level.

So I did.

I looked only at Single Family Residences and in the areas from SilverLake to Santa Monica/Venice on the city side and Toluca Lake to Encino on the valley side.

What did I find?

Here are the 10 areas with the smallest inventory* as of September 9th:

1. 90403 -- Santa Monica (between Wilshire and Montana) -- 2 months of inventory
2. 90402 -- Santa Monica (north of Montana) -- 3 months
3. 90212 -- Beverly Hills (SW) -- 4 months
4. 90404 -- Santa Monica -- 4 months
5. 90035 -- S. Robertson/S. Carthay -- 5 months
6. 90038 -- Hollywood -- 5 months
7. 90025 -- Sawtelle/West L.A. -- 5 months
8. 90024 -- Westwood -- 5 months
9. 90405 -- Santa Monica -- 5 months
10. 90004 -- Hancock Park -- 5 months

One could argue that these are the areas that are closest to the bottom -- if not already there.

Why do I say that? We are not likely to see a wave of additional foreclosures in any of these areas -- particularly with the declining interest rates, surge in loan modification and increased buyer activity. And because these are highly desirable areas with low inventory, significant further price declines in these areas are highly unlikely. I'm sure doomsayers will argue, but I think these areas are near bottom -- or there.

Now, the list of areas with the highest inventory is quite interesting. Here are the Top 5:

1. 90265 -- Malibu -- 32 months of inventory
2. 90069 -- West Hollywood -- 27 months
3. 90068 -- Hollywood Hills East -- 11 months
4. 90077 -- Bel Air/Holmby Hills -- 11 months
5. 90046 -- Sunset Strip/Hollywood Hills East -- 10 months

And one could argue that these are the areas (within my survey) that are the furthest from recovery and the most likely to see prices fall further. Those top two are striking -- 90265 (Malibu) and 90069 (West Hollywood). All I can say about that is "Yikes!" And I wonder if there's something else going on because those are way out of whack with the rest of these prime areas.

To see my entire chart of inventory in 34 different zip codes: CLICK HERE

Sorting through recovery predictions

There's been a ton of predictions flying around lately (aren't there always?) about when the housing market will recover.

I'm going to sort through a few of them and offer my thoughts.

• First, the excellently researched doomsday blog, Dr. Housing Bubble, predicts we won't see a bottom in California until 2011. And in this post he gives 10 good reasons why this could be true.
• Second, Robert Shiller says housing prices in the U.S. could eventually fall more than they did in the Great Depression.
• Credit Suisse sees the bottom at least more than a year away.
• CNBC's Jim Cramer -- who was calling for the Fannie/Freddie bailout, recomends a fed rate cut, and says housing stocks have already bottomed -- sees the housing market bottom coming in the 3rd Quarter of 2009.

But what does this mean for Los Angeles? Well, what it does not mean is that homes are going to become considerably more affordable to many more people in Santa Monica. Or Malibu. Or Westwood. Or Beverly Hills. Or Brentwood.

I'm sorry, but no matter which of these wannabe sages is correct, it does not mean we are going to see tremendous affordability coming to these most desirable areas of Los Angeles.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

Waves of foreclosures have already hit Southern California. But not these areas. Are they still coming? I don't think so.

I don't think so when we have already seen prices drop enough that buyers have started coming off the sidelines.

I don't think so when the feds are stepping in to move toward a solution in the mortgage industry.

I don't think so when there are still so many people that want to live in these areas.

The likelihood of foreclosures hitting in waves in Westside Los Angeles has actually diminished in the last few months. And the direction things are going doesn't point to dramatic price declines in these areas.

More likely, we will see stagnant or slightly dropping prices over the end of this year and early part of next year. But I think we are likely to see an improved market in the summer of 2009 vs. the summer of 2008 for these prime areas. That means more sales. Fewer dramatic price drops.

And while the beginning of a recovery will likely come to these prime areas next year. Lesser areas of Los Angeles, probably won't experience this until 2010, or maybe even 2011 or later, especially in places like Riverside County.

So while these pundits may be correct that a real estate recovery for the nation or less desirable areas of California, could still be years off, it's just around the corner in Santa Monica. Or Malibu. Or Westwood. Or Beverly Hills. Or Brentwood.

Hooray! Feds take over Fannie & Freddie

Finally, finally, finally, the federal government has stepped in to take over the GSEs -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This is great news for the recovery of the housing market, the stock market, the credit market and the overall U.S. and global economy.

It is NOT a $5 trillion expense by U.S. taxpayers. It would only be a $5 trillion expense if every loan was unpaid and no money was recovered from the underlying assets. The actual expense to U.S. taxpayers will be much smaller.

And when you consider the tremendous benefit this will have on the economy, this action is a tremendous investment for U.S. taxpayers in the future of our economy. Not taking this action would likely cost the broader U.S. economy much, much more.

This also means the fall in home prices will be shorter and not as severe as it would have been without this action.

As Daniel Alpert, managing director at the investment bank Westwood Capital, told the Associated Press: "There's no doubt in my mind that this will stabilize the mortgage market."

In July and August, we have seen many signs that the housing market may be near the bottom in some areas. However, the remaining concern has been the mortgage market. This is a step toward alleviating that concern.

Los Angeles foreclosures decline

Foreclosures in the Los Angeles area dropped 18 percent in August, the second time in three months that foreclosure numbers in L.A. have declined after hitting record highs, according to Property Shark.

No doubt, many in the real estate industry will use this information to predict that we are at or near the bottom of the market. And truthfully, there have been several other signs that a bottom may be here -- particularly a noticeable increase in buying activity beginning in mid-July and continuing through August.

But there’s other reasons to be skeptical of a bottom. The August foreclosure numbers in L.A. are still a 159 percent increase over August 2007. And nobody is claiming that it’s getting easier to get a loan. It is in fact, getting harder.

Regardless, the real estate market is unquestionably considerably much different than it was earlier this year as foreclosures began to really take off in L.A. Through much of the early part of the year, as foreclosures mounted, homeowners in financial distress couldn’t sell their homes even if they wanted to. That’s no longer true.

There are buyers snatching up discounted properties. It seems more buyers than ever have come off the sidelines to put bids on homes.

But for many, the best areas of Los Angeles remain out of reach, and are likely to stay out of reach. While foreclosures have trickled into prime areas, and prices in prime areas have come down some, the biggest price drops and the biggest foreclosures remain in the less desired areas. Just take a look at the Property Shark list of top 15 foreclosure zip codes in Los Angeles county: