Saturday, December 13, 2008

8-Figure Home Sales Crater

The mega mansions of Los Angeles have taken a big hit.

In an indication of just how far and how fast our economy has fallen, sales of 8-figure homes – those priced $10 million and above – have fallen tremendously in the second half of this year.

For much of the year – while the rest of the world suffered – the mega-mansions of L.A. continued selling. Through the first quarter of 2008, sales of $10 million homes were on a record pace. Even through the first half of this year, sales of $10 million+ homes were still on record pace. But since July 29th, just one home has sold for $10 million or more, according to the Combined Los Angeles-Westside MLS. This includes the prime areas of Beverly Hills, Bel-Air, Malibu and Brentwood.

That home was the unfinished mansion at 37 Beverly Park, which was originally listed for $49 million but ended up selling for $36.7 million.

One other home – “The Esquire House” at 1859 N. Doheny in the Sunset Strip – sold but didn’t report a price. (It was listed at $11.5 million.) One home – 12300 Mulholland – just went into escrow this week (listed at $15.9 million).

Even with those, it’s a sad case of the Nobody’s Buying Blues for L.A.'s most expensive homes.



To emphasize, January through July of 2008 there were 26 sales of $10 million or more. August 1st to today: there were 2 (and 1 more pending). 26 vs. 2. Whoa!

The upside of this is that (and I don't mean to sound like a real estate agent here, but...): There’s some great deals out there. Seriously. You'll see.

The people I talk with frequently already know that I think there’s one very special mega mansion that happens to be caught in this crazy market and is a downright steal right now at $35 million. There are others beyond that. There are still more where frustrated owners have taken their homes off the market (or tried to lease them) but would like to sell.

Want some numbers? My blog readers always want some numbers. So here goes. There are 106 separate properties in the CLAW-MLS areas listed at $10 million or more. At the rate they’ve been selling the last 5 months (3 total), it’s going to take nearly 15 years to sell them all. And if you include the outlying areas of L.A., there’s more than 100 more properties. Is this the end of the world?

No. There’s still a lot of people with a lot of money in this town. And still more who want to live in the greatest city on earth. Sales will pick up again. But these kind of irrationally slow sales can only suggest that, yes, there are some real deals to be had among even the highest priced homes in L.A. There I go, sounding like a real estate agent again. (Hey, at least there’s some numbers to back it up.)

And I even believe there are ways to increase your chances of selling your home in this market -- even when it appears nobody but nobody is buying. But to do that, your agent will have to do more than the usual to get your home sold. It involves some very simple but very effective (just not cheap) strategies that most luxury real estate agents don’t do. And a few things homeowners might not like, too.

So yes, write it down, things are dismal right now, even for the most expensive homes. But it simply can’t stay this bad for long.

1 comments:

SitDownKaren said...

With all the info coming out now on how the richest of the rich are getting scamed, your numbers make sense.

Our numbers are down by a large margin, but in out of the way valley's they are actually up.

This makes no sense to any of us.

The valley is ugly, dry and has limited resources yet they most expensive building is going on here. I guess that is the "next big thing" here in CO!

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