Submit YOUR real estate questions...

With all of the work I've been doing in the past year since the market picked back up to market and sell real estate, I've been less than excellent about keeping up with this blog.

I still do a lot of market analysis and am in touch with all kinds of deals in the residential and commercial real estate markets.

However, you haven't seen that work in this space much.

So...

...in an effort to provide at least some insight into the market in this space, I'd like to get your thoughts on what questions you have about the real estate market -- locally or internationally -- commercial or residential -- or anything else.

I'll pick a few I like best and right about them.

Send me an email at: chrishain@hotmail.com

Cheers,
Chris

Economics Prof: Housing Prices to Get Better

In case you missed it from today's New York Times, University of Chicago Economics Professor Casey Mulligan has an optimistic view of the housing market.

In a blog post, Mulligan says: "housing sector data released last week suggested that housing prices can head somewhat higher."

Specifically, Mulligan points to data suggesting housing producers are paying (or infers) willing to pay more for the materials to construct housing than they were in recent months.

Read Mulligan's entire post HERE.

My take is Mulligan may be right, but the data he's hinging his argument on is pretty thin. Of course, this is the nature of the science we call "Economics."

On the front lines of the many real estate projects I'm working on these days, we certainly have seen a stabilization of pricing over the past year, and in a few cases, a slight uptick in prices.

Is Mulligan's data hinting at the same slow and slight uptick in pricing that I'm noticing? Possibly.

But at the same time, you must consider that overall levels of housing construction are so low. Thus, the kind of small upward movements that Mulligan is pointing to are not broad-based. Mulligan rightly points out that housing starts and permits are up. But overall levels are still so low that I personally don't believe a measurement such as the one Mulligan is citing is a good indicator of where the broader housing economy is heading on pricing.

Morever, there are still a number of clouds on the housing horizon: Persistent Unemployment, Expiration of Government Tax Credits, Rumors of a New Flood of Foreclosures...

Maybe we'll look back and see that this was one of the first signs of a housing recovery. There are a few other good signs, too. But overall, I find the measure Mulligan is using is in-and-of-itself unconvincing.

Still, it's very important to keep looking for these kind of signals because, as Mulligan rightly points out, "the housing crash is the single most important factor that started this recession, so it would be nice to know when it will end."

Problems with Zillow -- Confirmed

Those of us who work day in and day out with the prices of homes and condos in the areas we specialize have for several years known about the problems with Zillow.

I've even heard some argue that the advent of Zillow has exacerabated the housing market problems here in Los Angeles. While I wouldn't go that far, I would say that Zillow has created real problems for agents trying to help their clients sell homes for the best price.

And there's a new study out on Zillow that confirms these problems.

The highly respected blog, Matrix, by NYC appraisal firm Miller Samuel highlights the study in a recent post HERE. The study is from Appraisal Journal and it shows that Zillow has flaws in the way it analyzes housing prices that serve to OVERESTIMATE housing prices, specifically, according to Appraisal Journal:

• "When it comes to using the Zillow.com automated valuation model (AVM) to get a free listing price on a house, users may be getting what they paid for, according to a report published by the Appraisal Institute that finds the Web site overestimates the values on homes almost as often as the actual homeowners."

This is actually more problematic than it sounds -- particularly in a real estate market that has suffered serious declines.

Most homeowners these days are dismayed at the loss of value in their properties (and rightly so). They still want to get the most for their home (and rightly so).

But when homeowners have an inflated perception of the value of their home from the outset (and that perception is reinforced by an inflated Zillow "Zestimate"), it only works against them.

We know from evidence over and over again that over-pricing your home from the outset by and large results in selling for less than pricing closer to the market at the beginning.

And inflated Zillow Zestimates just exacerbate this problem.

More Light at the end of the Los Angeles tunnel

Forbes Magazine has just named Los Angeles one of 10 metro areas in the U.S. where the Recession is ... easing!

According to Forbes, the Los Angeles metro area ranks an unfortunate 31st in unemployment, but that's largely due to Los Angeles' dismal 27th ranking for job growth from 2007 to 2009.

But times they are a-changing!

Forbes projects that we'll move up to 12th for job growth over the next three years. That's significant for an area that's the 2nd largest metro economy in the country.

And most importantly, LA is ranked 4th among 40 Metro areas for Housing Price Improvement.

From Forbes:

"California was perhaps hit hardest by the housing crisis. In spite of that, Los Angeles rises above the rest of the state, and other big cities in the country, to No. 9 on our list. Although the Golden State's real estate woes began earlier and were more pronounced than in large parts of the country, they began easing sooner.

Angeles has strong banking and finance industries and a housing market that, while it suffered from a major pricing bubble and bust, has seen a resurgence of demand. After falling to a median $311,100 in the second quarter of 2009, home sale prices there jumped 11% in the third quarter and another 2% between the third and fourth quarter of 2009 to a median $342,700, according to the National Association of Realtors, making number four in sales price improvement out of our 40 cities."

To check out the entire Forbes list, CLICK HERE.

March Home Buyer Fair

If you're at all thinking about buying or selling a home anytime soon, there's a great event coming up in Downtown Los Angeles.

It's not a sales event. It's an informational/educational event put on by the California Association of Realtors.

It's FREE.

It's two days at the Convention Center, March 13 and 14 and the list of scheduled presentations includes:

· Your Guide to the Home Buyer Tax Credits
· Finding a REALTOR®: The First Step to Your First Home
· Finding a Home Loan in Today’s Market
· Credit Boot Camp: How to Fix Your Finances
· How to Negotiate Your Loan Modification
· How to Plan and Save for Your First Home
· Your First Home: What to Know Before You Buy
· Don’t Lose Your Home: How to Avoid Foreclosure
· Stay Covered: The Basics of Homeowner’s Insurance
· Assistance Programs for First-time Buyers
· How to Find and Buy Foreclosures, Short Sales, and REOs
· Everything You Need to Know About CalVet Programs
· The California Housing Market Outlook
· Home Inspection 101
· Put Your Money to Work: Finding the Right Investment Property
· Don’t Get Scammed: Tips on Avoiding Mortgage Fraud
· Loan Tips for First-time Buyers

For the full program, CLICK HERE.

Or to to the website: homebuyersfair.com

Southern California housing price confusion

Time for me, once again, to point out the ridiculousness of single-month housing data.

As the story in today's LA Times points out, Southern California housing prices are up dramatically over last January and down dramatically over December.

Huh?

As I've said many times before, a single month is too small a sample to be meaningful when home purchases are at least a 30-day event.

But this story so dramatically makes my point, I had to give it special attention. Here, the article even points out its own futility:

• The month-to-month decline was attributable in part to the higher percentage of cheaper Inland Empire homes that sold in January compared with December as buyers in pricier locales stopped searching during the holidays and investors and first-time buyers made up a larger share of shoppers.

The writer is flat out telling you how flawed the information is.

This is why we only look at QUARTERLY data.

If You Don't Buy a House Now, You're Either Stupid or Broke...

...at least according to Business Week real estate columnist Marc Roth.

Read, "If You Don't Buy a House Now, You're Either Stupid or Broke."